Paul's Market Insights
Paul's Market Insights is our bi-weekly communique to provide clients with current insights on financial markets.
Written by Paul Siluch
December 19th, 2025
This week’s letter is a little different
The world is fully in love with AI and the hyper-growth of chips and data centres that have gone with it.
TIME Magazine even selected AI as its ‘person’ of the year for 2025.
Instead, I decided to interview an investment manager at the other end of this spectrum: the value end.
Written by Paul Siluch
November 28th, 2025
In 1982, a band called The Clash published a song about the lead singer’s struggles with a girl, as well as the possibility that he might leave the band.
Mick Jones, the lead singer, left the band in 1983. He should have stuck around. The song Should I Stay or Should I Go – a modest hit in 1982 – was featured in a Levi’s jeans commercial in 1991 and rocketed to #1.
Should I Go?
This is a question we get a lot, these days. Not about girls, though. About staying invested in the stock market after such a long rise.
Written by Paul Siluch
November 14th, 2025
History’s first loan is believed to have occurred in Mesopotamia around 3000-4000 BCE, when farmers borrowed seeds to plant their crop. As repayment, they promised a portion of their harvest in the fall. It became so common that the Sumerian word “mas” – which meant both ‘interest’ and ‘calf’ – came to reference loans repaid by livestock.
Over the years, granaries became both storage facilities and banks lending seed for the next year’s crop. Gold and silver evolved as the intermediary currency – seeds rot and are a clumsy form of permanent value – and the Egyptians introduced letters of credit, tying the metals to the loan to codify the transaction.
The Babylonian Code of Hammurabi in 1754 BCE capped the rate of interest on gold and silver loans at 33%. What a deal.
In their empires, the Greeks and Romans introduced pawnbrokers, which expanded borrowing further. These middlemen took other assets – collateral – to secure a loan of gold or silver. Modern banks still require similar collateralization when they lend today.
Written by Paul Siluch
October 10, 2025
The railway boom began with a boom. Literally.
Up until 1768, steam engines were underpowered and risky. They were useful for pumping water out of mines, but due to high pressure and poor-quality iron, early steam engines had a bad tendency to explode.
Along came James Watt in 1769. His efficient – and lower-pressure – steam engines ushered in the industrial revolution (Wikipedia). In particular, the steam locomotive. The railway boom swept across the world with a frenzy of building from 1850 to 1873 in the United States.
Capable of moving goods at less than half the cost of a canal boat, steam-powered locomotives changed the world. They moved people and goods faster than at any time in history. War accelerated the build-out even more, once governments realized how quickly they could move troops, signalling the end of the horse-drawn era.
Written By Paul Siluch
September 19th, 2025
My sister once dated a man who sold Canadian lottery tickets through the mail to Americans. Before 1996, most American lotteries—like those in California—paid winnings annually over 26 years, while Canadian lotteries paid out in one lump sum. People preferred one big cheque over twenty-six smaller ones.
He sold a lot of Canadian lottery tickets.
It was illegal, of course. My sister tended to see the best in people, even when she probably shouldn't have. But one thing he said stuck with me...
Written by Paul Siluch
September 5th, 2025
Once upon a time, one of your neolithic ancestors – let’s call her Lilly - was hungry. She had a spare deer hide but nothing she could eat.
Her neighbour – let’s call him Ug - caught some fish and offered her two in exchange for the fur. She demanded four but the two settled on three because he was cold, and she needed to eat.
This was barter, the earliest form of monetary transaction.
What makes any form of money work? There are five qualities...
Written by Paul Siluch
August 21st, 2025
President Trump is determined to end the war in Ukraine. He may be premature in his enthusiasm, but the fact remains that both sides are exhausted. Russia has suffered over one million casualties and Ukraine perhaps a third of that. Russia’s budget deficit is 30% higher than expected and the government has hiked income taxes sharply in response (data from Kyiv Independent).
Both would benefit from a ceasefire, even if they are too proud to admit it. And while we may not be able to plan on a peace settlement, we can at least start planning on a plan for a peace settlement.
Written by Paul Siluch
August 8th, 2025
In the heart of Switzerland lies a valley between giant mountains called the Bernese Oberland. The mountains have names and personalities. The Monch (the monk) stands between the Jungfrau (the young maiden), protecting her from the Eiger (the ogre). The peaks are majestic, imposing, and magnetic to the eye.
Until 1968, the mountain village of Mürren was a sleepy skiing and hiking town, home to about 500 people and a favourite holiday destination for the British. Its slopes stretched in all directions with one mountain, Schilthorn, hosting a half-built resort at its summit, stuck in financial limbo.
The James Bond franchise, led by Albert Broccoli, was looking for a location for its next movie, as well as a new star. Sean Connery was past his best days and so the producers were on the hunt for a younger, and more muscular, secret agent to replace him.
They settled on an Australian named George Lazenby, an ex-car salesman and model who had never acted. He cut his hair like Sean Connery, had a suit tailored to match 007, and punched a stuntman and broke his nose in an early audition. He bluffed his way past 400 other applicants and got the job.
Written by Paul Siluch
July 18th, 2025
A recent trip to northern Italy got me thinking about sin.
Not sinning – sin. And its current financial parallel.
The grand Milan Cathedral – the Duomo di Milano – is the third largest cathedral in Europe. It took almost 579 years to complete at a cost of approximately US $600 million in today’s dollars (AI estimate). Expensive today, it would have been cosmically expensive for medieval European worshippers,
To finance such grand edifices, the Catholic church became very creative in its fundraising.
Written by Paul Siluch
June 6th, 2025
“General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization, come here to this gate.
Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate!
Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”
- President Ronald Reagan, address at the Brandenburg Gate, June 12, 1987 to open the Berlin Wall, which had encircled West Berlin since 1961.
Written by Paul Siluch • May 23, 2025
When the Vikings pillaged the coasts of Scotland, England, and Europe, legend says they took the most beautiful women back to Iceland to be their wives. Modern Icelanders say this is why the tiny country has the most attractive people in Europe.
I travelled to Iceland earlier this month. It is a tiny country, and the people are wonderful. The most attractive in Europe? They think so!
Written by Paul Siluch
April 11, 2025
Market drops hurt. Especially a 13% decline in four days.
You are going to hear a lot of advice telling you to “stay the course” and “ignore the dips.”
It is correct advice, but it can be hard to follow. We are entering a period of churning because markets need to digest the dramatic changes of the last month. Prepare for more ups and downs in your portfolio until the tariff wars are settled.
And they will be. But it will take time.
The U.S. spends too much. We all do, but the U.S. is the outlier.
In 2024, the U.S. received $4.92 trillion in revenues versus $6.75 trillion in expenditures. The deficit was $1.83 trillion. This amounts to 6.3% of GDP. (bea.gov)
Canada, by contrast, is stingy. Our deficit is large, but only 2.8% of GDP. (macrotrends)
The U.S. cannot continue along this path without encountering some sort of debt or currency crisis in the future. The government does not want to raise taxes, so what can it do other than slash spending?
Written by Paul Siluch
March 21st, 2025
Did you know that our music memory peaks at age 14? Between the ages of 12 and 22, we experience some of the most significant moments of our lives. Adolescence, puberty, falling in love, breaking up, graduating – all these events become etched in our minds, cemented by the quick-dry action of hormones like cortisol, adrenaline, dopamine, and serotonin.
Written by Paul Siluch
March 7th, 2025
“An alliance with a powerful person is never safe.”
- Phaedrus (Plato’s Dialogues)
We are living 2018 déjà vu all over again.
In June 2018, the United States imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum for the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Other tariffs landed on India and China. Canada, India, and China imposed retaliatory tariffs a month later.
In 2025, a new round of tariffs hit Canada, Mexico, and China. Canada is cancelling billions in U.S. contracts while China struck back with a 15% tariff on US soybeans as well as a ban on US lumber.
The restrictions on US food exports are from China’s 2018 playbook. The ban forced the U.S. to bail out its farmers after their sales collapsed.
Written by Paul Siluch
February 21st, 2025
How many people had Canada becoming the 51st state on their dance card for 2025?
No one except, perhaps, the current U.S. president. Which assumes this was planned in advance and not simply something dreamed up in the middle of the night.
Canada is the second largest country in the world by geography. It is an unwieldy land mass, blessed with water and natural resources, but cursed with ice, mountains, and bad weather. Our dueling nationalities of French and English have pulled us apart since Confederation; meanwhile, the U.S. covets our treasures.
- Boy Scout motto
Sometimes you get snowed in by an unexpected blizzard. It never snows in Victoria, right?
And sometimes you get snowed by a friend. The US, in this case.
Stock market history tells us the first year of a new president’s term is positive for markets. But as we were reminded this week, a year is a long time. Sometimes the unexpected happens.
Written by Paul Siluch
January 16th, 2025
I took my family on a research trip to Disneyland this past weekend. We own Disney shares in portfolios, so what better way to see how the company is doing?
Thankfully, the horrific fires were well north of Anaheim but some employees from LA were staying in Disneyland hotels after being evacuated. Many Canadian firefighters were already there or on the way.
Judging by the crowds, Disney is doing just fine. Of course, the company is so much more than parks today, you have to dig deeper to get your arms around it.
We all face change, with some years more chaotic than others, and 2025 may be one of those years. Walt Disney’s journey is a story of adapting to change, for few companies of his era did it as adeptly as he did.
January 3rd, 2025
2025 is an interesting number.
Note that I said “number” and not “year.”
The digits add up to 9 as follows: 2 + 0 + 2 + 5 = 9. Any number that adds up to 9 or a multiple of 9 will evenly divide it. This means the number 2025 evenly divides 9 by 225. The same works for 3 and 6. It is a pattern some people discover intuitively while many don’t.
The number 9 is special to many cultures. It is considered lucky in China; the king of the single digit numbers signifying completion in numerology and has special relevance in all parts of culture. There are nine planets, for example, and it takes nine months to gestate a baby.
2025 is also a perfect square: 45 x 45 = 2025. This is rare in that only 1849 (43 x 43) and 1936 (44 x 44) occur in the last two centuries.
Written by Paul Siluch
December 13th, 2024
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."
-Vladimir Lenin
It has been a very full couple of weeks in the world:
- After 53 years in power, the Assad dynasty in Syria fell, toppled by rebel forces with support from Turkey. The geopolitical impacts are not known yet, but oil prices rose, as they always do when something explodes in the Middle East. Oil is not a large export for Syria so any ripples in the energy markets are likely to be short-lived. Syria’s main exports are olive oil and nuts, so a regime change won’t affect global trade much at all. However, Russia and Iran stand to lose influence in the region while Turkey gains.
- • The president of South Korea attempted martial law but was stopped by the Korean legislature – a victory for this sometimes-shaky democracy.
- • U.S. employment worsened.
- • Canada cut interest rates by 0.5%, which is well below U.S. rates right now. As a result, the Canadian dollar hit its lowest point against the US dollar since the 2020 pandemic.
Markets continued their uphill march, despite the news.
Written by Paul Siluch
November 22nd, 2024
Human beings think we are good at predictions, but we bat only about 51% (goodui.org). Our crystal balls and tarot cards are about as good as a coin toss, in other words.
51% was the margin most polls in the recent U.S. election suggested the Democrats would win by, only to be proven wrong. Democrats garnered 48.24% of the popular vote compared to 49.89% for the Republicans (Cook Political Report).
Pollsters spent millions to be right. They were not a good investment this year.
Canadians would have voted 64% for Democrats versus 21% for Republicans, so if you are disappointed in the outcome up here, you are not alone (Global News, Leger survey)
As investors, we can’t really afford to be political. The wind will blow with us in some years and against us in others. The U.S. is a resilient country that has faced this before, and it will survive the turmoil ahead.
Our job is to adapt to the current conditions and invest accordingly.
“Friend or foe, take the dough.”
Written by Paul Siluch
November 6th, 2024
A Nickel Ain't Worth a Dime Anymore.
- Yogi Berra
The Timelessness of Economic Trends
Every generation thinks it invented sex. That’s what my grandmother said, and she was a wise old girl. If you doubt it, have a look at the frisky mosaics in Pompeii, or the Greek statues from Athens, circa 475 B.C.
Written by Paul Siluch
October 25th, 2024
We all want to be remembered in life, and even moreso at death. Our legacy is important.
The average person is remembered for about two generations, or roughly 50 years. Beyond that, you are a genealogical footnote - a single forgotten line in the family tree.
You only live as long as your name is spoken.
- Egyptian parable
Fifty years is roughly the span between a grandparent and a grandchild, two generational ends whose lives overlap. Relations beyond these boundaries are rare, especially with today’s children arriving later in life. And fewer of them per family.
Death is bad. But being forgotten is even worse.
Written by Paul Siluch
October 9th, 2024
The movie “2002 A Space Odyssey” began with an ape using a bone to beat another ape. It was a metaphor for the earliest human discovering a tool.
A brutal tool, to be honest, but the victorious ape was presumably just a little smarter than the losing ape and survived to pass along his genes.
One of the most effective tools these smarter genes of ours envisioned was the waterwheel. These were invented as far back as 4000 BC by the Mesopotamians to grind flour and irrigate fields. Waterwheels only capture about 20% of the water’s power but are far better than pounding wheat with a rock by hand.
In 1878, the first hydroelectric generator fired up in Cragside in Northumberland at a small lake.
In that moment, the era of the modern power dam was born.
Written by Paul Siluch
September 27th, 2024
“The only thing I want to know is where I'm going to die so I never go there.”
– Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett’s partner, died at age 99
We’d all like to know when we will die. Think how easy it would be to plan your life:
- You’d know how many books you could read.
- You’d know how many trips you had left.
- And your financial planner could help you spend your last dollar on your last day.
Of course, it is never that easy.
Written by Paul Siluch
September 11th, 2024
In 1992, China accounted for just 1.6% of the world economy (globaleconomy.com). By 2022, it was close to 20%.
What happens in China matters.
In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization. Commodities exploded in price as China industrialized. China’s oil imports alone grew from 1.2 million barrels per day in 2001 to 11.29 million barrels per day in 2023 (Reuters). This sent oil prices to over $140 per barrel and benefitted Canada as an oil exporter.
Then the boom ended. China’s growth moderated. Canada slumped.
Hope springs eternal, though. Canada is always hoping for another commodity boom, though. And why not? Demand for copper, lithium, and nickel are exploding with the introduction of electric cars even as supplies are tight. It can take ten years or longer to bring a mine from discovery to production. And no one wants a mine in their backyard, anyway.
As a result, there shortages forecast for everything from uranium to copper to silver - even helium is rationed (NBC news). Fill your party balloons now!
Written by Paul Siluch
August 30, 2024
Most people plan on selling their house when they move into a retirement home. It is a sound strategy, as this is often your biggest asset.
This week, we are going to discuss:
- Why your home went up so much in value
- Why this may be coming to an end
- How to plan for this
We do financial plans for people. The family home is often the largest asset people own and its sale frees up capital in the final years of life to afford ongoing care.
Remember, the final two years of your life are your most expensive in terms of health and housing. Many people need as much home equity as possible.
But will your house be worth what you think it is worth, when you want to sell it?
Written by Paul Siluch
August 16th, 2024
"I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!"
- Howard Beale, from the movie Network (1976)
The 1970s are remembered as being some of the worst years for global conflict since WWII. This occurred after a relatively peaceful period from 1953 to the mid-1960s, following the Korean War.
Cold War tensions never stopped, and they exploded in the late 1960s and through the 1970s as conflicts broke out in Vietnam, Angola, Iran, Syria, Israel, and many parts of Africa.
Written by Paul Siluch
July 31st, 2024
What is the most creative song ever written? The most finely crafted?
And why am I asking this question?
Music will always be judged in the context of when you lived. For example, Beethoven superseded Bach and Handel in classical music, as did Mozart and Debussy after him.
In modern times, the Everly Brothers’ “All I Have to Do Is Dream” is recognized as one of the most perfect songs of its era, as were the Beatle’s “Yesterday” and “Strawberry Fields” a decade later. Aretha Franklin’s “Respect” and Led Zeppelin’s “Stairway to Heaven” broke new ground of their own the decade after that.
We like what we grow up with.
Written by Paul Siluch
July 10th, 2024
Despite 2024 seeming like a brand-new year, the reality is we are already halfway through it. And when we hit 2025, it will be the halfway point of the 2020s. Today is the “Halfway to Halfway” point of the decade.
Halfway is relative, of course:
- Halfway for a mayfly is 12 hours - they live only for a day.
- Halfway for a weasel is 6 months – they live about a year.
- Human ‘halfway’ is 36 years – mankind’s worldwide average is 72 years.
- Halfway for a bowhead whale is 100 years – they can live up to 200 years.
Time doesn’t accelerate, of course, but it sure seems like it. Unless you are a bowhead whale.
Written by Paul Siluch
June 19th, 2024
People today use the word ‘like’ a lot. Like, really a lot. Embraced by the youth, the word ‘like’ has now spread worldwide.
The word comes from ancient Norse and was used to describe something similar. “He’s a country fellow, like” for example. It then broadened to a wider variety of uses.
Shakespeare is blamed by some for using the more formal ‘liken’ and ‘belike’ and then substituting them with the shorter ‘like’ to echo what people were already saying.
Which means he may have just been riding a rising wave.
In a study done in the UAE with 17- to 24-year-old students at the American University of Sharjah, the word was used almost 20 times for every 1,000 words. That is 2% of all words used in everyday conversation. One student used ‘like’ for a full 5% of their verbal output.
The word ‘like’ was just an average word used the same amount of time for over a century. That is, until Valley Girl speech became popularized in movies starting in the 1980s. Some purists complain that its use made girls sound less intelligent (we do pick on girls’ speech more) even though boys may actually use it more today.
Written by Paul Siluch
May 23rd, 2024
My wife and I just returned from Spain and Portugal where we walked the final 100km of the Portuguese Camino trail. This is one of the historic pilgrim routes to the cathedral at Santiago de Compostella in Spain, a church built to honour the apostle St. James. Approximately 440,000 pilgrims walked all or part of one of the 13 Camino routes in 2023, which is 1,200 pilgrims per day entering the city.
The final point, the cathedral square, is a very busy place.
Most people participate to enjoy the walk, although surveys say 45% of walkers are there for religious, spiritual, or health reasons. As hikes go, it was relatively easy, although consecutive days of 20+ kilometres do take their toll.
Two observations about the walk.
Written by Paul Siluch
April 23rd, 2024
Music is always changing and the changes are unpredictable.
- Billy Sheehan
Is it strange that some of the happiest songs were written when the world was at its worst?
Or that the saddest songs are often written when the world is on a high?
We all know about economic cycles. High interest rates, then low interest rates. High unemployment, then everyone finds a job. Rinse and repeat. Geopolitics have cycles as well. War follows peace follows war every few generations.
Much of cycle theory is explained by the last generation dying out, only to be replaced by a younger cohort with no memories of their parent’s mistakes. They then make them all over again.
Music has its cycles too.
Written by Paul Siluch
April 10th, 2024
I am a serial arsonist when it comes to the barbeque. I blacken everything I cook.
My friend Rob introduced me to a wireless meat thermometer called the Meater. It is a small probe you insert into a piece of meat, place it on the barbeque or in the oven, and then watch your cellphone. The Meater’s app tells you exactly when to turn or take the meat out.
Written by Paul Siluch
March 20th, 2024
It always happens in the dead of night. In the Witching Hour, when everything stops. Between midnight and 3 a.m.
Your body hurts. Is it serious or will it go away? Darkness magnifies your fears, especially if it won’t go away.
In most developed countries, we have options when you are in pain. You can call your doctor’s night line. You can go to the hospital emergency room to get assessed and treated if necessary.
Except, as most Canadians know, you often can’t. My community hospital once treated me for a fast-spreading infection in my hand in the middle of the night. Two bags of intravenous antibiotics later, I was fine. If I had had to wait a day, I might not have been.
The Silent generation was a small group compared to previous generations. Life was hard. They struggled for food and for jobs. Those who made up the Silents – those born between 1928 and 1945 – grew up in the shadow of the Depression and through the maelstrom of world war. Because of these trials, they came to prize stability and conformity.
Don’t make waves. Be dependable.
When WW2 ended, they did their duty by having babies, and lots of them. The Baby Boom generation, which was loosely defined as the period between 1946 and 1964 when an average of 4 million children were born every year, was the largest in history. Canada mirrored the U.S. experience with close to 400,000 babies born per year over that stretch.
I arrived at the tail end of this generation.
“Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.”
-Mike Tyson
Years ago, a client lost his wife far too early. She was just 54 and he was 63. He was supposed to die first because her mother, still alive, survived until 102. You don’t plan for things like this. They certainly didn’t.
He carried on for 14 more years, although “shambled through” was a more appropriate term than “carried on.” Money was not a concern, but his days were long. He never really got over the loss, with life more existence than experience.
We all have weaknesses and his, unfortunately, was alcohol. Loneliness and the bottle are not good companions – or they are excellent companions, depending on how you look at it – and those dependent on alcohol seek out others with similar traits. He moved through a succession of partners over the years until finally settling for a woman far younger with an even worse drinking problem.
It was his life, so I can’t judge. His estate planning choices I can judge, though.
They were not good.
Written by Paul Siluch
February 7th, 2024
In nature, some species thrive while others die off. Why one and not the other? Maybe one adapts to a changed environment while another benefits from dumb luck. Both work.
Ask the dinosaurs. They were bigger than every other life form on Earth and dominated almost every niche above ground. Along came a meteor and suddenly small and burrowing creatures became dominant in a very short space of time. Flying dinosaurs adapted and became birds. No other dinosaurs made it.
Companies are no different. They can prosper for decades and then fall apart when business conditions change, and new competitors arise. It can be sudden, like Blockbuster Video that only survived for 25 years. Or it can be a long decline, like Sears Roebuck that lasted 125 years.
Written by Paul Siluch
January 25th, 2024
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.”
- A Tale of Two Cities, by Charles Dickens (picture from original manuscript)
Written by Paul Siluch
January 2nd,2024
I don't make mistakes. I make prophecies which immediately turn out to be wrong.
- Murray Walker
Around 700 B.C. in ancient Greece, a temple dedicated to Apollo became famous for its priestess. She was known as the Oracle of Delphi and her words of prophecy came to be sought out by kings and scholars.
The title of Oracle was passed down from one woman to the next, with the requirement that she be a virgin over the age of 50.
At least, she had to look like a virgin. Appearances were very important in the prophesizing world.
The oracle’s pronouncements were delivered in a delirious state and were often gibberish. These words were then studied by priests and interpreted as enigmatic prophecies. History suggests oracles did not live long lives, for reasons that only became apparent thousands of years later.
Written by Paul Siluch
December 15th, 2023
“Don't change for you,
Don't change a thing for me.”
- Don’t Change, by INXS
Welcome to our last letter of 2023. The decade started in 2020, which means we are now finishing the fourth year of ten – almost halfway. The next four years will mark the peak retirement years of the Baby Boom generation and the subsequent handover of many offices, leadership roles, and wealth to younger hands.
Much has been written about the giant technological changes we are seeing happen right before our eyes. CRISPR gene-editing. Fusion power. Artificial Intelligence (AI). Many compare today’s miracles to those of yesterday - the steam engine, electricity, the internet - in how much they changed the world. These new ones will change humanity even more.
Written by Paul Siluch
December 1st, 2023
In Greek mythology, fire was a gift reserved for the gods. Watching humanity shiver in the cold, the god Prometheus took pity, stole fire from Mt. Olympus, and gave it to the mortals below. Zeus was furious. He chained Prometheus to a rock and had an eagle eat his liver every day, which grew back each night.
Okay, he was immortal, but that is still one heck of an eternal punishment.
Written by Paul Siluch
November 1st, 2023
Since Hallowe’en is a celebration of the dead, let’s have a look at dead investors. What? As it turns out, they are actually surprisingly good investors. A survey years ago by Fidelity supposedly scanned all their accounts to find who were the best investors. The result was rather surprising: the best investors were dead!
Written by Paul Siluch
October 18th, 2023
Coca-Cola originally contained cocaine. It wasn’t put in the drink intentionally. It came as part of the coca leaf which, coupled with the kola nut for its caffeine, made up the special kick – cocaine and caffeine – of the original 1886 Coca-Cola beverage. The narcotic was removed in 1903 and the recipe revised, but the secret flavour was still good enough to make Coca-Cola one of the leading brands in the world a hundred years later.
Coca-Cola isn’t the topic of this week’s letter, but rather Pepsi-Cola. The number two soda pop producer deserves some attention because it has suffered this year.
Pepsi is not so sexy right now.
Written by Paul Siluch
October 6th, 2023
Seville, Spain was once the most important city in Spain. In Europe, as well. Possibly even the world for a time. We visited for a very brief week last month and I was struck by an economic parallel between what happened to Seville and our modern predicament.
What made Seville so important?
Written by Paul Siluch
September 18th, 2023
I met a young man wearing a black hooded sweatshirt the other day when I was in line to buy euros for an upcoming trip. We started chatting, and he mentioned he was “in finance.” I asked what area of finance. He hesitated for a moment, and then said, “I’m a day trader. It has a bad name, but it’s nothing illegal,” he added hurriedly.
“Day trading,“ I replied, measuring my words, “can work for a few people. If you’re quick and manage your risks.”
Written by Paul Siluch
August 30th, 2023
The word “Hello” is a relatively new word, dating back to just 1827. It was favoured by Thomas Edison to begin conversations on the new invention of the telephone.
Alexander Graham Bell preferred “Ahoy” for his version of the telephone, which was an older Dutch greeting used to greet ships. The first phone book in 1878 included instructions on how to use the device, and the recommendation was to start with a hearty “hulloa,” which made Hello permanent and Ahoy a non-starter.
When your friendly banker calls and says “Hello, your mortgage is coming due,” she is using a much older word.
The word “mortgage” dates back to a French combination from the 1400s. Mort means ‘death’ and gage means ‘pledge,’ so mortgage is, essentially, a death pledge.
Written by Paul Siluch
August 1st, 2023
“Money makes the world go round” is a lesson learned many times throughout history, and one we are about to learn all over again.
When Rome fell to the barbarians in the year 476 A.D., it actually only half fell. Rome had split and moved a second capital to Constantinople – modern-day Istanbul - decades before because that was where most of the empire had moved.
The Eastern Roman empire was not without its own problems. It was a crowded neighbourhood, with Persians to the East, Slavs to the west, and barbarian hordes to the north. All of them tried hard to topple the New Rome over the centuries. A Prophet named Mohammed and the emergence of his huge new Arab nation, plus the bubonic plague, nearly accomplished this. Byzantium - as the eastern Roman Empire came to be known - almost vanished by the late 700s. What remained struggled. It could barely pay its soldiers and corruption was rampant.
Written By Paul Siluch
July 20th, 2023
When the ancients stared into the sky at night, they saw themselves in the stars. People, animals, gods, demons – the night sky was the palette of their imaginations.
In the decades after the first flight of the Wright brothers in 1903, people looking up now saw not only birds, but airplanes. Our world now included humans in the sky, as well as on the Earth.
Our imaginations really opened up with the advent of jet engines, rocketry, and the atomic bomb after 1945. Suddenly, we could not only imagine going to space using brand new science, but we also saw it in real life. It was in 1947 that the first official UFO sighting was made public by a pilot in Washington State.
Written by Paul Siluch
July 4th, 2023
It’s July now. The midway point of the year. Half-way home.
At the beginning of 2023, many analysts predicted that the year would start weak and end strong. Instead, we’ve had just the opposite. Canada’s main index is +5.7 per cent to start the year, while the Nasdaq has soared over +30 per cent.
It’s not all great, though. Global bonds are -0.94 per cent for the first six months. We’ve raised interest rates steadily since January, and bonds hate this.
By Paul Siluch
May 12th, 2023
Have you ever bought a lottery ticket? And then wondered why as you tore it up after losing?
Humans are attracted to risk, and a few take it too far through gambling.
Somewhere at the bottom of our lizard brains, there is a pleasure centre that gets stimulated by the thrill of taking a risk, followed by a rush of endorphins, adrenaline, or dopamine (pick your favourite reward chemical) to deliver an even bigger rush when it pays off.
April 12, 2023
We have had calls from a few clients worried about the decline of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Yes, it is true that the dollar’s share of global reserves has shrunk from 68 per cent of global currency reserves in 2002 to about 58 per cent today:
Should we be worried?
Written by Paul Siluch
March 30th, 2023
Why does Canada have so many fewer people than the United States?
The United States got bigger first. More people = more babies, so a faster start each year. That helps. But in terms of immigration, we were always a distant second.
Here is how our two countries have grown in population since 1870:
Written by Paul Siluch
March 16th, 2023
When the light begins to change
I sometimes feel a little strange
I have a constant fear
That something's always near
- Fear of the Dark, Iron Maiden 1992
It is that time of the cycle again, when we become afraid of what we cannot see. Panic over distress somewhere sends stocks tumbling and gyrating.
It happens about every 3-5 years, on average. World events occur that shake markets.
Written by Paul Siluch
March 10th, 2023
A money manager remarked this week that many, many things in the economy depend on when the Ukraine war ends.
It was just a year ago that Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin, hoping for a quick victory, was surprised by Ukraine’s tenacity. He was even more shocked by the unity of the West in its assistance to the smaller nation.
Now, a year later, both sides find themselves dug into a trench war reminiscent of WWI.
To my mind, the era this is most similar to is the period from 1950 to 1953. These were the years when Dunkin’ Donuts, Walmart, Kentucky Fried Chicken, and Denny's were all publicly listed, but they are not the parallel I am referring to.
Written by Paul Siluch
February 9th, 2023
AI – or Artificial Intelligence – is taking the world by storm. This is thanks to the rapid emergence of ChatGPT, a natural language program that answers questions in plain English. And in great detail. This free program has been tried by over 100 million users in just two months, shattering the old record of nine months to reach this number held by TikTok.
It is the fastest growing consumer application in history.
People are very intrigued, to say the least.
Written by Paul Siluch
February 9th, 2023
Markets were very strong in January, with Canada’s S&P/TSX rising over 7% and the S&P 500 up over 6%.
China is re-opening after being locked down for almost three years due to the pandemic, which will have positive implications for oil and gas (air travel is rapidly climbing, as is commuting by car), construction, and consumption. This should help to soften the recession we expect later this year over here.
Written by Paul Siluch
January 25th, 2023
We need to talk about death. Not ordinary, God-decreed-it death.
Planned death, as in Medical Assistance In Dying. Or MAID as we call it here in Canada.
I have seen three in my practise as an investment advisor in just the last year. That’s up from zero from just two years ago. It wasn’t a thing, but now it most definitely is a thing. A very meaningful, society-impacting, generational change thing.
Written by Paul Siluch
January 13th, 2023
You can’t throw a rock at the financial press this time of year without hitting an article about predictions for 2023. By the nature of predictions, almost all will be dead wrong.
I mean, the foremost futurist in 1970 predicted that the most popular vehicle in 1980 would be a flying car. Instead, it was the minivan! It was all about demographics - soccer moms needed space, not wings.
Predictions drum up attention, and the one correct guess will be promoted heavily a year later even if the other nine are completely wrong.
Written by Paul Siluch
December 21st, 2022
It is the winter solstice today, the longest night of the year and the shortest day. Few likely have noticed, as North America – from Houston to Victoria – is in the grip of frigid arctic weather.
Indeed, it seems like the entire year of 2022 has been in a similar icy grip, not unlike the classic Christmas carol “In the Bleak Midwinter” by Christina Rossetti.
Written by Paul Siluch
December 8th, 2022
I met someone recently who lives a lifestyle I’ve read about but never really seen.
He’s a young man, 32, who works full-time and lives in a van. He’s been doing this for three years while he saves money to buy a house. His nest egg is quite sizeable, to his credit.
It prompted the poem below, an ode to the resilience of those who understand sacrifice, as well as to the youth of today.
Written by Paul Siluch
December 8th, 2022
The story of 2023 will be about the narrative shift from concerns about inflation to worry about recession. In some sectors, it is already happening.
People are switching from Whole Foods to Wal-Mart (NYSE WMT) for their grocery shopping, for example. Dollarama (TSX DOL), the dollar store chain, just had record earnings.
Here’s how we see 2023 playing out:
Written by Paul Siluch
November 11th, 2022
The good news is: the U.S. midterm elections are over. Not only does the non-stop coverage end, but markets should improve. Since 1946, U.S. market returns have been positive in 100 per cent of the years following midterm elections.
Talk about a relief rally.
Written by Paul Siluch
November 9th, 2022
The modern world is obsessed with zero. You could say it started about 5,000 years ago.
The Sumerians in ancient Mesopotamia were the first culture to conceive of the idea of zero. It was more of a positional placeholder, like a vacant lot between two houses. It simply meant “nothing to see here, move along.”
Written by Paul Siluch
October 14, 2022
Every traveller has a cell phone today. You need one to navigate, clear customs, and log vaccination records. Even cyclists and skateboarders can be heard talking on them as they fly past. Victoria’s homeless shelter says one of their biggest needs is charging ports and data donations. You need a phone to apply for a job and just about every modern activity.
Written by Paul Siluch
October 13, 2022
As a result of a cancelled trip during the Covid panic of 2020, my wife and I had expiring airfare to burn before Westjet burned it up for us. So, we escaped for a week to Barcelona, which was cheaper to visit than Montreal.
Go figure.
Barcelona anchors the ancient Catalonia region, a part of the medieval Aragon Empire that once stretched from France down the coast of Spain and controlled Sardinia, Sicily, and parts of Greece. Its navy ruled the eastern Mediterranean until Spain, discovered America and its silver riches, at which point Catalonia and Barcelona became a bit of an afterthought, and slid into a long decline.
Written by Paul Siluch
September 30, 2022
I recall a client once telling me that becoming a grandfather was the single most pleasurable event of his life. Friends of ours recently became grandparents, and I admit to being a little envious.
Many elderly people never have the pleasure of being grandparents, however. Fewer children, later births and great distances mean even those with grandchildren rarely get to see them. This may explain the rise of pet ownership these days. There are more pets in Japan than there are children today.
